UK climate change suits grapes but frost more likely

In a presentation at the Vineyard Show this week, Professor Steve Dorling predicted the future climate during the grape growing season over the next 20-40 years would be warmer, with similar rainfall, but increased frost risk.

In a presentation entitled Future Climate Impact on Vineyards: Insights and Updates from Innovate UK’s groundbreaking frost project, Prof Dorling claimed the average growing temperature has risen from 12.7 Celsius (55F) in 1970 to 14.2 degrees Celsius (58F) in 2024.

The rain and the wet, damp conditions known in England are not expected to change much, but the risk of frost is expected to increase. Warmer weather will mean earlier and earlier bud burst, when the year's crop is most vulnerable.

The most significant risk to climate change is a shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). In the UK and western Europe this is the gulf steam that brings warm water from the southern US, warming the UK and western France. It has been weakening as the climate has warmed, and is thought could still potentially collapse, radically cooling the UK and western Europe.